DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/21 11:14
Soybeans Mixed; Corn, Wheat Lower at Midday
Old-crop beans again have some positive net changes, but most other grain
markets are lower at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock markets are flat to higher with the Dow up 30. The interest
rate products are higher. The dollar index is 4 higher. Energies are lower with
crude down $.50. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are mixed
with gold down $1.
Corn trade is 12 lower on July to 4 lower on December new crop at midday.
The planting progress number is noted for the lower trade along with some
profit taking by old-crop longs. Basis has been noted softening following the
advance in price, and producers available to move old crop with planting
completed. Outside markets are slightly negative as well. The planting progress
was higher than expected, but not shocking. The progress number was at 71%
versus only 28% last week and 95% last year. We are now near the 79% average
planting pace, but the crop is behind normal -- virtually the whole crop.
Emergence was only 19% versus the 46% average and 73% last year. There has been
better interest noted in new crop, with two cargos being sold Monday. Basis
remains very strong, supported by ethanol margins, but softening. Most expect
basis to bounce back with a drop in the board today. The new-crop demand is
expected to only be trickle down on weakness unless there is a yield-reducing
Soybean trade is mixed with July up 8 and Novmeber down 2 at midday. Meal is
$1 higher on July but $1 to $2 lower on most other contarcts, and bean oil is
up 10 points. The rally and recent strength has shaken some bushels loose for
processors, and basis has softened a bit, although still very strong. The
weekly progress report listed soybean plantings at 24%; this was just below
expectations as it appeared most were fully focused on corn plantings. Only 3%
were listed emerged versus the 14% average. Old-crop tightness should keep
futures activity volatile and the spreads strong. On the Chart, November is
staying in between the 50-day at $12.32 and the 20-day down at $12.12. Chinese
soy prices remain strong, and crush margins have been softened, which could
lead them to backing off imports a bit in the near term.
Wheat trade is 8 lower in KC and Chicago, but 2 higher in Minneapolis at
midday. The weekly progress report listed winter wheat at 43% headed versus the
62% average. Winter wheat ratings slipped 1% to 31% good to excellent and poor
to very poor was raised 2% to 41%. Spring wheat plantings were listed at 67%
versus the 76% average. If the trade can confirm some of the rumored export
business, it would be a solid shot in the arm, especially with Russian exports
looking to step up business in the near future. Chicago July is below all major
moving averages and may find resistance up around $7 at the 10-day moving
average so chart selling is noted today. Minneapolis is holding firm due to
expected planting delays on the last third of the spring wheat crop which may
take acres out of production.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Trading Adviser
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